Trends and developments

This chapter describes the demographic, economic, socio-cultural, technological, ecological and political developments that influence NS. For our response to these developments, see the chapter entitled Our strategy. 

Continuing labour market tightness and changing demographics 

The continuing labour market tightness, with 110 vacancies for every 100 unemployed people, remains a concern for many companies, NS included. A report by McKinsey predicts that the Netherlands will face a major labour shortage (1.4 million vacancies) by 2030. The country needs to transition towards a skills-driven labour market, in which workers continuously develop to stay relevant and employable. Particularly in critical professions, such as healthcare and engineering, there will continue to be a mismatch between supply and demand. A focus on both employee development and mobilisation of technology is needed to address this problem. 

The year 2024 saw increasing urbanisation and gentrification, plus different demographics. The over-60s age group is growing, which has an impact on travel behaviour and the design of station areas. Population growth in 2024 came mainly from migration. Shortages in many sectors mean that more and more companies, including in the transport sector, are choosing to recruit staff from other countries. However, the substantial housing shortage makes it difficult to provide everyone with adequate accommodation.

Just over half of people in the Netherlands (52%) regularly work from home. This percentage is higher than any other country in the European Union. People are also increasingly starting their day at home and not going to work until later. The main reason for this is to avoid the increasing congestion caused by a lot of major maintenance. Tuesdays and Thursdays remain by far the busiest days on the trains.

Limited budgets require difficult decisions

In 2024, limited budgets posed a significant challenge for many organisations; NS was no different. Public finances are under pressure from economic contraction and persistent inflation, leaving less and less scope for investment in areas such as infrastructure and public transport. As a result, there is more pressure to make critical decisions on which projects to prioritise. If we do not invest in public transport and infrastructure, the quality of public transport is at risk of deteriorating. Meeting passengers' expectations remains a challenge while budgets are under pressure. This calls for creativity and efficiency. We must focus on innovative and sustainable choices that are also economically viable if we want mobility to remain accessible to all passengers. 

Poverty 

Although the number of people at risk of poverty fell to its lowest level in 45 years, the effects of poverty remained visible in the Netherlands in 2024. The combination of a high cost of living and inflation is increasing the financial pressure on families, particularly those on an average income.  Providing affordable travel options is an important step to reduce the negative effects of poverty and improve the overall accessibility of public transport. 

Housing construction

Pressure on the housing market has increased. Only around 32,000 new homes were built in the first half of 2024. This is the lowest number since 2018 and means that the target set of 100,000 homes per year is unachievable. New areas outside the Randstad conurbation are being designated for large-scale housing development, with government expressing a preference for locations near to existing infrastructure. At the same time, we are seeing a reduction in the regional public transport offering and the number of accessible facilities, making people increasingly dependent on cars. As a result, car ownership outside the big cities is on the up, whereas in the cities car ownership is decreasing and cycling is playing a more prominent role. Different transport options need to be properly connected to keep the whole of the Netherlands sustainably accessible. There are also several advantages to developing new residential and business locations near public transport hubs. 

Social safety challenges 

Many people feel that society is hardening, which has an impact on the job satisfaction and mental health of many of our employees. Polarisation and a blurring of moral standards create a tense atmosphere and make people feel less safe. This is reflected in more frequent violence on public transport and more threats in the public domain. Stress and psychological overload are increasingly common causes of absenteeism, particularly among employees in public-facing positions such as guards, but also for shop assistants. The need for effective measures to address violence and lack of safety in public transport is urgent. 

Contribution of sustainable transport to the climate targets 

There is a growing awareness of the need to combat climate change. Conscious and meaningful consumption is gaining popularity, with consumers seeking to find the optimal balance between convenience and value. The drive for a sustainable society is further supported by European regulations. The importance of the train as a sustainable mobility solution is obvious. Travelling by train is part of the solution to climate change. At the same time, climate extremes such as prolonged heat and heavy rainfall are placing additional pressure on rail infrastructure. This requires investment in both climate adaptation and mitigation. The transition to sustainable mobility depends on robust infrastructure, to ensure that we not only meet current demand but are also prepared for future needs. Over the next few years, a lot of work will be carried out on infrastructure and this work will lead to more frequent disruptions.

Grid congestion limits economic growth 

Grid congestion remains a major issue, as demand for electricity rises while energy infrastructure is unable to meet this demand. Grid congestion costs the Netherlands of tens of billions every year. Businesses are not connected, housing construction is at a standstill and sustainability is slowing down. Grid managers can use a priority framework to prioritise the allocation of capacity to sectors with a social interest such as healthcare and education or to companies that help to resolve grid congestion. Grid congestion may be a barrier to more intensive use of the Dutch rail network in the future.

Developments in the mobility market 

Municipal policy to discourage car ownership, such as higher parking fees and lower parking capacity standards, is proving effective in cities. However, car ownership remains high outside cities even in areas with good public transport facilities. Cycling is growing in popularity, thanks in part to investment in cycling infrastructure and the rise of e-bikes. These developments are encouraging people to switch to combinations of cycling and public transport as an alternative to the car. As a result, cycling is playing an increasingly important role in urban areas. The government and various players in the mobility market have committed to Mobility as a Service (MaaS) and better provision of shared transport such as e-bikes, bicycles, scooters and cars. These efforts will continue during the new main rail network concession. The market is constantly changing, with providers joining, merging or leaving the Dutch market. A number of parties are investing in developing apps and increasing the offering. The market is nonetheless proving turbulent and providers face operational challenges that are causing shared transport facilities to disappear from cities again. Outside Amsterdam, shared cars, bikes and cargo bikes in particular are becoming more popular.  

Technological developments in and around trains 

Technological innovations in and around trains impact NS and our partners in the rail sector. One of the key trends is the adoption of artificial intelligence. AI not only provides innovative solutions for operational processes, but also helps improve the customer experience. Accessible but secure data management is essential in this regard. Organisations are becoming more vulnerable to cyber threats from both state and non-state actors. A strong focus on securing systems and data within NS and at suppliers is essential in times of increased geopolitical tension.

Autonomous driving systems and automated public transport, such as self-driving buses, are the subject of growing interest and support in policy-making. This offers opportunities for efficient transport before and after train journeys, although the full impact on train services is still limited. Furthermore, the introduction of 5G is playing a major role in improving connectivity and operational efficiency. This, combined with developments in sensor technology, can potentially lead to better monitoring and predictability of maintenance needs and passenger flows, and thus more efficient deployment of equipment and staff.